3. Russia's Economy 2022-2026: A Fortress Under Siege
Russia's Economy 2022-2026: A Fortress Under Siege Introduction This is the third installment in my series analyzing Russia's economy, which traces developments back to 1998. The first post covered 1998-2008 - from absolute collapse to the oil boom. The second part (2009-2021) showed how the Kremlin turned that boom into an economic "fortress": low external debt, swollen reserves and total control over strategic sectors - all of it preparation for the sanctions to come. Now let us see whether the fortress withstood what it was built for. In February 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, most Western economists agreed on one thing: Russia's economy was going to collapse. In April, the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) forecast an 8.5% fall in GDP for 2022. This was no ordinary recession - it was a figure that came close to a collapse. However, by October the forecast contraction had been cut to 3.4%. The final outcome surprised everyo...